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mjeleven11
Posts:17
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| 10/04/2006 6:20 PM |
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Have we considered adding markets relating to the content of the book...i.e. outsourcing business functions to a community?
Also, it would be interesting to know how to construct multiple stocks out of the same question in order to derive more value by simply changing the scale. For example, currently, each question is very expensive (~$97 for one of them). I'd assume it is difficult to measure volatility in a stock at prices like these considering that almost everyone in the market is optimistic about the outcome of the security. Also, if everyone is optimistic and continues to buy the stock, I'm sure that would cause some weird behavior in an illiquid market. Therefore, is it possible to add one or two more stocks with the same question but change the quantity from, say, 10,000 to 50,000 and see how the market price of the new stock reacts?
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jspector
Posts:38
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| 10/04/2006 9:49 PM |
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What would the rationale be for the two different stocks predicting the same question (but in different amounts) to have different prices? Wouldn't the market quickly equate the prices of each stock?
(May be I am misundertanding your question...) |
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vdimitroff
Posts:4
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| 10/06/2006 6:03 AM |
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Can we try to predict the likelihood that before long (e.g. within 3 months) there will be a multitude of 'copycat' sites: some shamelessly replicating the WeAreSmarter idea, some having arrived to the concept independently?
Ways to measure this could be based on the presence of identical (or closely similar) features: a wiki book (collective body of intellectual work), a market-like prediction tool, and networking functionality.
I am pretty confident that we can count at least a dozen of these by Christmas time. Any bets?
V. |
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barry
Posts:72
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| 10/07/2006 7:01 PM |
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mike
i don't know - we are waiting for a response from justin and david.
Barry |
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jspector
Posts:38
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| 10/11/2006 11:58 PM |
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Personally, I doubt there will be copycats that quickly. Maybe I am wrong, but the integration needed to make the various techologies talk to each other was not trivial to put together (at least it wasn't trivial to our team!).
But I do think the idea will be copied - in fact, I hope it is copied. It will be interesting to see whether different types of groups can write different types of books (or indeed, if any of us can write a book successfully).
- Jon Spector |
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