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Forums > Discussions From the First 'We' Book > Prediction Tool Discussions
Subject: Passive or Active?
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rpatershuk
Posts:2
10/20/2006 3:51 PM Alert 
Is a prediction market a passive process that collects data and processes it in the bakground or is it an active process that requires focused particicpation? I believe the short answer is both but in what circumstances does one work better than another?
RP
barry
Posts:72
10/20/2006 7:10 PM Alert 
RP

we are looking at modifying the prediction market based on the results to date - to make it more active and dynamic. stay tuned.

Barry
rpatershuk
Posts:2
10/23/2006 10:12 AM Alert 
Thanks Barry,

My question was slightly deeper and of a different vein. Markets are often the reactions of indiviuals choices based on information. A prediction market in a sense is an information market for information. That said, consider the sustainability of a "market", if a data collection methodology is active -- requiring active input there is a greater risk that interest may wane. Conversly if an information market is passive -- being supported by an automated system it is more likey to sustain.

My understanding thus far is that a predition market is is a secondary market that informatiom must be gleemed for the actions of others in other activities.
or it could be a an active particpatory mareket such as a poll.
RP
barry
Posts:72
10/23/2006 9:03 PM Alert 
RP

i really like your line of inquiry and we are working with a number of experts in the prediction markets to find the right balance. What is your thought about the balance that needs to be struck to insure the success of this information market?

Barrry
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